Frontex – Annual Risk Analysis 2012

Frontex posted its 2012 Annual Risk Analysis (“ARA”) on its website on 20 April, 2012. The stated purpose of the ARA is “to plan the coordination of operational activities at the external borders of the EU in 2013”.

Concerning the Euro – mediterranean region, highlights include:

• 86% of the detections of irregular migrants in 2011 on the EU’s external borders occurred in two areas, the Central Mediterranean (46%) and the Eastern Mediterranean, primarily on the land border between Greece and Turkey (40%);           
• The 64 000 detections in 2011 in the Central Mediterranean were obviously linked directly to the events in North Africa.  The flow of Tunisians was reduced by 75% in the second quarter of 2011 as a result of an accelerated repatriation agreement that was signed between Italy and Tunisia;             
• There is a very high likelihood of a renewed flow of irregular migrants at the southern maritime border.  Larger flows, if they develop, are more likely to develop on the Central Mediterranean route because of proximity to Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt;                     
• Irregular migration in the Western Mediterranean towards Spain remains low, but has been steadily increasing and accounted for 6% of the EU’s detections in 2011;                        
• The land border between Greece and Turkey is now an established illegal-entry point for irregular migrants and facilitation networks;                
• According to intelligence from JO Hermes, women embarking from North Africa to the EU are in particular danger of being intimidated by their smugglers and forced into prostitution.